Category Archives: Peak Oil

Peak Oil Stress Centered in Southeast

Based on drive time to work and income it appears that the focus of peak oil stress is centered in the drill-baby-drill geography of the Southeast.

China & Peak Oil

More coverage of Peak Oil by the mainstream press (CNBC):

DOD and Peak Oil

This is the Energy Summary from the DOD’s 2010 Joint Operating Environment Report.  The possible supply crunch circa 2012 would be the equivalent of shutting down Saudi Arabia.

Energy Summary
To generate the energy required worldwide by the 2030s would require us to find an additional 1.4 MBD every year until then.

During the next twenty-five years, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meet energy requirements. The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields.

At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and drilling capacity.

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. {Equivalent to the output of Saudi Arabia}

Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity. Efficient hybrid, electric, and flex-fuel vehicles will likely dominate light-duty vehicle sales by 2035 and much of the growth in gasoline demand may be met through increases in biofuels production.

Renewed interest in nuclear power and green energy sources such as solar power, wind, or geothermal may blunt rising prices for fossil fuels should business interest become actual investment. However, capital costs in some power-generation and distribution sectors are also rising, reflecting global demand for alternative energy sources and hindering their ability to compete effectively with relatively cheap fossil fuels.

Fossil fuels will very likely remain the predominant energy source going forward.

On the Cusp of Collapse?

“The credit crisis exemplifies society’s difficulties in the timely management of risks outside our experience or immediate concerns, even when such risks are well signposted. We have passed or are close to passing the peak of global oil production. Our civilisation is structurally unstable to an energy withdrawal. There is a high probability that our integrated and globalised civilisation is on the cusp of a fast and near-term collapse.”

David Korowicz of Feasta and the Risk/Resilience Network has written an excellent essay on the impact of Peak Oil on our monetary system’s absolute need to grow.  He makes the case that in the context of our highly interconnected and complex systems of civilisation there will be not be anything like a gentle descent into a more resilient and renewable world.  This is a must read for anyone who has hopes of a sustainable future.

2011 Decline in World Oil Production?

The U.S. Department of Energy admits that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 “if the investment is not there”, according to an exclusive interview with Glen Sweetnam, main official expert on oil market in the Obama administration.

U.S. no Longer Controls the Price of Oil

More from Gregor on Peak Oil and the EIA and other U.S. analysts stuck hopelessly in the past.

Will the Meek Inherit the Earth?

Excellent summary of current thinking and theories of societal collapse from the New Scientist.  For my own take on the subject go here(How to Avoid) and here(Laws of Collapse).